Suzanna Lamria Siregar

12/21/2012

Statistics 101 - Midterm test

Problem #4: P(A) = x, P(B|A) = y, P(B) = z,    where  x,y,z >0

(of course the real test  is not as implicit as these equations,  you have to invent the equations  from half page of a very tricky story )

Are A and B independent events? Please consider adding the proof to your answer (This is the main question).

A student’s answer: Yes, because everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedom.

Another student’s answer: Yes, because everyone was born with free will to choose his/her own way of life.

???

My students mixed up Bayes’  Probability  with The Universal Declaration of  Human Rights or made the statistics’ problem sounds so-what philosophic  because they translated “Independence” with freedom and free will, didn’t they?

Ha . . .

Actually the right answer is as easy as you can prove that P(B|A) = P(B) leads to what Bayes’ conclusion that A and B are independent events.

The “Take me out” Theorem:

In a two-phase process of making a choice:

Where in the first stage, you have to choose only two among many options and at the end you only could get one, then the first two you choose are the most you like and dislike … By doing so you ease the next stage.

*What do you think Prof. Nash?

Consequence of the theorem:

Being second on the list means being the most dislike. Implicitly you are chosen to be rejected. People talk sweet things about you but they turn off your light.

**Oh, I’m watching too much tv

***Take Me Out is a trademark of FremantleMedia Limited …

Found on the foyer chest, a postcard which made my heart to heavily drum. I turned the postcard. The stamps signed that it was sent from the other side of the world… thousands miles from home. The only handwritten words - which I knew so well - were my address. Nothing on the message part. I kissed the postcard to decipher and to hear - as if I put my ear to hear the sound of the ocean through a  seashell  - he declaimed my favorite passage of his: “If I don’t say I love you. It means that I do”.

Inspired by an old man whom I saw put such a (blank) postcard into a post box at the hospital this morning. I really hope that the address was legibly written.

On the commuter train this morning, A pretty lady sitting on my left was talking on her telecommunication(al) gadget: “Yes, my ex (boyfriend(?) or husband(?)) named his daughter after me! Precisely using my full complete name!”

A sudden pause, and then she continued: “But he dare not to be my Facebook friend!”

Eavesdropping is quite electrifying…

Wanda (Mom) asked Hammie (Son): Did you brush your teeth?

Hammie translated his mom’s command as: How many bizarre excuses can you come up with (for not brushing your teeth)?

Hammie devised these rationales:
(1) I lost my toothbrush
(2) I forgot
(3) My mouth is too tired
(4) I cannot find the toothpaste
(5) I didn’t get my teeth dirty today
(6) I’m just going to brush ‘em twice in the morning!

http://www.babyblues.com/archive/index.php?formname=getstrip&GoToDay=02/07/2007

When JP was only three or maybe four year old, he was profoundly attached to a particular television commercial, a facial foam advertisement starred by a young -beautiful-smooth-white-as-pearl-skin faced girl.

Crystal clear … (we thought that) the pretty face was his main interest, until one day …

His mom took the TV remote and was about to change the channel while JP’s favorite ad had just commenced. JP screamed, “Nooo. Mommy … don’t do that… don’t change the channel!” His mom sighed, “Oh honey, what make you like the ad so much? The lady?”

JP nodded, a confirmation proceeding his proclamation, “It said the lady got a Komodo on her nose! I have noticed the lady hundreds times but never seen the dragon. Have you?”

What Wikipedia says on the matter:

Komodo (in Indonesian Language) = Komodo or Comodo Dragon: Varanus komodoensis, also known as the Komodo monitor, is a large species of lizard found in Indonesia…

Komedo (in Indonesian Language) = Comedo: non inflamed pore blocked with sebum, a symptom of acne vulgaris…

My Mom, an excellent cook says: If you are good in math, then you can cook well… unfortunately it does not go the other way around. You definitely can use math in cooking, but can you use cooking in math? So it’s better to first study math then cooking, not vice-versa.

To all my little nieces and nephews who now are so inspired by the “MasterChef” on TV and have decided to be a “Chef” when grown-up…

And now you know why I do not cook…

A: I wish Italy will be the champion… It’s about time, they win!

B: How about JAPAN?

C: Whoaaa… Did not you learn anything in your BIOGRAPHY class?

Richard Nixon to Patricia Ryan:
“Let’s go for a long ride Sunday; let’s go to the mountains weekends; let’s read books in front of fires; most of all, let’s really grow together and find the happiness we know is ours.”

Patricia Ryan to Richard Nixon:
“In case I don’t see you before why don’t you come early Wednesday (6)—and I’ll see if I can burn a hamburger for you.”